I. The Quarterly Context

Wintertime insurgent violence in Kandahar province, where most of the Canadian Forces in Afghanistan are based, recorded the usual seasonal reduction from the very high rates of previous quarters. Nonetheless, the frequency of insurgent attacks reached levels higher than in the same three months of 2008—which were higher than in any earlier winter quarter. Kandahar experienced a year-over-year increase in attacks with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) during the quarter. The number of IED “finds” also increased, especially in Kandahar City, mainly reflecting improving capabilities of Afghan soldiers and police to detect IEDs and solicit tips from the public.

Canadian and Afghan forces continued to attack and disrupt IED networks in Kandahar, adapting to changing insurgent methods just as the insurgents themselves adapt to evolving coalition and Afghan operations. Afghan forces demonstrated noteworthy advances in their capacity to prevent IED attacks, and by the end of the quarter Afghan soldiers and police were mounting a growing number of effective, independent operations on their own.

Despite these developments, assassinations of government officials and other prominent leaders continued and Afghan civilians suffered higher levels of violence than a year ago. Opinion polling in the quarter showed a decline in the percentage of Kandaharis who feel safe: 29 percent said they felt safe or very safe, fewer than in any previous poll. Favourable opinion of the Taliban, at 25 percent, reached an all-time high. Favourable opinion of the Afghan government stood at 74 percent, down from 81 percent in September 2008. (When asked to name the three biggest challenges facing their community, Kandaharis still listed concerns about employment, electricity and high prices more often than security.) Meanwhile, there was evidence that insurgents were reconstituting their networks for the coming “fighting season” from spring through summer and fall. Kandahar continued to rank among the most insecure of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.

The Canadian Forces are deployed in Afghanistan as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), the 42-country coalition fighting under United Nations authority in support of the Afghan government; ISAF operates under the command of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Under the March 13, 2008, motion passed by the House of Commons, Canada’s military mission in Kandahar will end in 2011.

Canadian troops in Kandahar—more than 2,800 in all—carry out courageous combat operations and lead training and mentoring for members of the Afghan National Army. The Canadian Forces also support training and mentoring of the Afghan National Police. The combat effectiveness of the Canadian Forces was strengthened during the quarter as their recently deployed helicopters reached full operational capability. The airlift and protection provided by Chinook and Griffon helicopters, and surveillance by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), are reducing exposure of Canadian soldiers and civilians to IEDs while enabling swifter operations against insurgents. The Canadian Forces, in close partnership with Afghan forces, continue to focus their operations on the security of Kandahar City and its populated approaches.

In the international context, prospects for a more powerful and coordinated international collaboration in Afghanistan were strengthened by two major events during the quarter. First, the United States announced a new strategy for Afghanistan, Pakistan and the region that includes large new deployments of U.S. troops to Afghanistan, fuller integration of U.S. military and civilian activities, additional development aid, and redoubled emphasis on training Afghan soldiers and police. Second, a multinational conference in The Hague—which included several of Afghanistan’s regional neighbours—reaffirmed the shared international interest in helping Afghans develop a better governed and more peaceful country.

The U.S. strategy is directed at what President Barack Obama called “a clear and focused goal: to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al-Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future.” To that end, he announced the deployment this spring of about 4,000 U.S. troops to train Afghan security forces. Together with the deployment of 17,000 troops announced earlier, these reinforcements will raise U.S. troop numbers in Afghanistan to more than 55,000 this year. A sizable proportion of these added forces is expected to be based in southern provinces, including Kandahar. President Obama’s regional strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan has encouraged the formation of an international group of senior officials to coordinate diplomacy in Afghanistan and the region. Canada is an active member of the group.