II. The Context

In Afghanistan generally, and in Kandahar specifically, security conditions remained especially dangerous and by some measures deteriorated during the quarter. Insurgency activity continued in and around Kabul. Criminal and factional violence compounded the insecurity generated by the insurgency in the capital and surrounding areas. In Kandahar province, where many of Canada’s security, governance and development programs are focused, the overall severity and frequency of security incidents remained high, partly as a result of ANSF and Canadian operations against former insurgent strongholds. Kandahar experienced unprecedented numbers of insurgent attacks by IEDs; and the numbers of IED “finds” also rose, in part reflecting public willingness to report IEDs, along with greater ANSF and coalition capacity to find IEDs before they detonate. Public reporting of IEDs suggested a heightened readiness among Kandaharis to act in defence of their own security. Even so, nine Canadian soldiers were killed (all in December), and more wounded, in IED explosions during the quarter. In all, 32 Canadian soldiers were killed in the counter-insurgency in 2008. Across Afghanistan, more civilians and soldiers—Afghan and international—were killed in 2008 than in any earlier year of the war.

During the quarter, the Afghan National Army in Kandahar began to lead combat operations and suffered high casualty rates, mostly in IED attacks that increased both in frequency and complexity. Attacks against governing institutions continued, with IED strikes against the Kandahar Provincial Council and an assembly of district elders. Assassinations of prominent pro-government Kandaharis, and other acts of intimidation, also grew more numerous. The November acid attack on more than a dozen schoolgirls and teachers shook Kandahar City and caused an outcry throughout Afghanistan. It was a particularly shocking demonstration of the insurgency and its consequences. (Remarkably, almost all the wounded girls have since returned to school.)

Public opinion is never easy to gauge in Kandahar, not least because many Kandaharis express reluctance to speak unfavourably of their government to a pollster. But high and rising levels of insurgent violence seemed to be undermining citizens’ confidence in their safety and their future. In recent polling, more Kandaharis have said their security is getting worse, and the number who believe security is improving fell markedly—from more than 50 percent to less than 30percent—in the span of a year.

The deployment of a U.S. battalion has strengthened counter-insurgency forces in the province, where Canada has about 2,800 troops in training and combat roles. The Canadian Forces’ presence has also been strengthened, with the deployment of an Air Wing in Kandahar consisting of Chinook and Griffon helicopters, Heron and Sperwer UAVs, and the Theatre Support Element flying Hercules transport aircraft. The six Chinooks and eight Griffons, although they were not yet operational during the quarter, will provide Canadian personnel with safer transport than road convoys allow. The UAVs enhance intelligence-gathering and surveillance capabilities.

Canada participates in the counter-insurgency campaign in Afghanistan as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), a coalition of 41 countries operating under NATO command and with the authority of the United Nations Security Council. The Canadian combat mission is to end in 2011.